Category: Prayer Blog

“The truth is we’re not very good at making those predictions, but sometimes poor predictions are better than no predictions at all.”

John Drake in relation to predicting pandemics.¹
Director of the University of Georgia Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases

In Part I of my reflections I cited the New York Times worst-case estimated for COVID-19 deaths in the USA. The estimate was between 200,000 and 1.7 million people.² There is an enormous difference between 200,000 and 1.7 million. This started me down the path of researching and reflecting on COVID-19 predictions.

The most reliable source for up-to-date COVID-19 predictions seems to be https://covid19.healthdata.org ran by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME – http://www.healthdata.org). They detailed their methods which are under peer review.³ Figure 1 is their projectons for the numbers of deaths per day that was accessed on April 7, 2020.

I have put a green box around the small print: “Shaded area indicates uncertainty.” At the peak the range of deaths per day varies between 1,200 and 8,000. Again this is a vast difference in the possible prediction.

These large variances do not even take into account game changing events. If a treatment is found that is 50% effective (or more) then all these predictions change for the better. God forbid, but if an additional air borne pandemic starts then the deaths per day could skyrocket. Not to mention a miraculous God intervention of some type.

I do not want to advocate that we ignore the predictions, that would be foolish. At the same time we must remember that the scientist making the predictions also have a high degree of uncertainty. All of this to say: The predictions are unpredictable.

Notes

¹ Dhapte, Prajakta. “Predicting Pandemics: It’s Not Easy, but Researchers Are Trying.” Georgia Health News, 25 Jan 2019. accessed 7 Apr 2020, https://www.georgiahealthnews.com/2019/01/predicting-pandemics-easy-researchers/.

² Fink, Sheri. “Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths.” New York Times, 13 March 2020. accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html.

³ Murray, Christopher J. L. “Forecasting Covid-19 Impact on Hospital Bed-Days, Icu-Days, Ventilator-Days and Deaths by Us State in the Next 4 Months.” medRxiv (2020). accessed 7 Apr 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752.

According to the New York Times worst-case estimates for USA COVID-19 deaths are between 200,000 and 1.7 million people.[1] Needless to say, this is a disturbing number of people who could potentially die.

All deaths, no matter the cause, are tragic. The thought of so many Americans dying from COVID-19 is horrendous. However, these numbers need to be put into perspective. In 2018, 380,000 people died from Malaria in Africa.[2] What is more stagering is that 1.5 million people died from Malaria in Africa in 2004; over 1 million of these where children under the age of five.[3]

In Africa when 1.5 million people died from Malaria in 2004 life went on as normal. Dying from Malaria was, and is still, a tragic part of everyday life in Africa. Year after year hundreds of thousands of people die from Malaria in Africa.

Now that the USA is facing the loss of hundreds of thousands, Americans are keenly aware of how a disease can wreck havoc with the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness. Welcome to the world of disease in developing nations.

Maybe God will use COVID-19 to make America a little more sensitive to the diseases the rest of the world faces.[4]

Footnotes

[1] Fink, Sheri. “Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths.” New York Times, 13 March 2020. accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html.

[2] World Health Organization. World Malaria Report 2019. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2019. accessed 2 Apr 2020. https://www.who.int/malaria/publications/world-malaria-report-2019/en/. 9.

[3] Murray, Christopher J L, Lisa C Rosenfeld, Stephen S Lim, Kathryn G Andrews, Kyle J Foreman, Diana Haring, Nancy Fullman, et al. “Global Malaria Mortality between 1980 and 2010: A Systematic Analysis.” The Lancet, no. 379 (2012): 413-431. Published electronically 4 Feb 2012. accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60034-8. 415, 421.

[4] The USA (as a whole) has been indifferent to the loss of millions of lives in Africa to Malaria, with two notable exceptions. However, most Americans are unaware of these two. One, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation gave 750 million to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria in 2012. (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, “Foundation Commits $750 Million to Global Fund,” news release, 2012, accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2012/01/Foundation-Commits-$750-Million-to-Global-Fund.) Two, the President’s Malaria Initiative which was started in 2005 and in 2018 gave 723 million dollars to help fight Malaria. (President’s Malaria Initiative. “About.” President’s Malaria Initiative, accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://www.pmi.gov/about. see Funding Tab.) While the above mentioned amounts are significant, they are a drop in the bucket compared to the 2 trillion dollar stimulus package for COVID-19.

I am not a prophet nor the son of a prophet, so I rarely make determinations on the things for which God brings judgement. The fault of Job’s three friends (which incurred the wrath of God) was not that they spoke theological falsehood, but rather that their theology was wrongly applied to Job’s character. Hence I now move forward with caution less I tumble into the same pit as Job’s friends. Failure to care for and help the poor, weak and sick has brought about God’s judgement in the Biblical text. Perhaps one should ask if it is possible that God is using COVID-19 as part of His judgement on America’s indifference to Malaria in Africa and other diseases in the developing world?

By God’s grace, my article, “The Realization of Isaiah 61 in Africa,” has been published. Here is the link to the article:

https://www.sats.edu.za/cox-realization-of-isaiah-61-in-africa/

I have tried to make the article accessable to layman. Hence, more “technical” points are in parathesises or footnotes. In addition, Greek and Hebrew words, in the body of the article, have English definitions in parathesises. In other words, you do not need seminary training to read the article.

For those interested in seeing the entire issue of “Conspectus” Volume 28 in which my article is published visit:

https://www.sats.edu.za/conspectus/

This article has been in the works since 2010. Over the years, it has taken various forms along with growing and developing. Praise be to God it is now in “Conspectus.”

Before I left for Kenya, one of my friends asked for some photos of Kenya. Thought you might enjoy them also. Below are a few photos. Enjoy!

Today I start my biannual migration to Kenya to teach classes at Africa Theological Seminary for six weeks. I will be teaching Major Prophets, Old Testament Biblical Theology and New Testament Biblical Theology. Pray that true spiritual growth, and not just the passing of knowledge, will take place.

Some of you have been praying for the publication of an article I wrote on Isaiah 61. By God’s grace, my article continues to find favor with an academic journal. Last week they sent me a typeset proof to review (one of the last steps, if not the last step, before publication). Praise be to God that progress continues. In addition to finding a number of mistakes that I made, some issues crept in during the typesetting process, especially with some of the phrases in Hebrew. Pray for the final proofing process.

Lastly, I love going to Kenya to teach. I do not like being away from my family for these extended periods. Pray for God’s grace to abound over the miles.

Paul at Dallas/Fort Worth airport starting his migration

This past weekend Steve Taylor (a colleague at ATS) and I represented Africa Theological Seminary (ATS) by riding in the annual Jon “Just Get ER Done” Memorial Motorcycle Ride in Minnesota. All the funds raised in this ride go to purchasing motorcycles for pastors in Africa. Over the years, this ride has purchased and given away 244 motorcycles. ATS and “Just Get ER Done” ride have had a long partnership with many of these 244 motorcycles going to ATS alumni. You can read more about the ride at jonjust.com/memorial-ride.html. (And no, I did not ride a Harley. Cindy and David borrowed a Kawasaki 650 for me to ride.)

The ride was started by David and Cindy Just after the tragic death of their son Jon in a motorcycle accident. Jon had a profound love for Jesus that was demonstrated in his life and was passionate about motorcycles. So a memorial ride to raise funds to help pastors in Africa is the perfect way to remember Jon. More about Jon’s life is available at: jonjust.com/jons-story.html

Praise God with me for David and Cindy who have allowed God to take the tragic and work it together for good. Praise God for a successful ride with the largest number of motorcycles that they have ever had: 88. Pray that God would bless their obedience and efforts to help African pastors.

Please continue to pray for the following items:

• Repackaging my dissertation (prayer_blog/_783)
• My role as Vice President Development and low support (prayer_blog/_779)

African Christian scholars have, quite unknowingly, provided a window on how the Arab culture would most likely view the Bible, if they were Christian. As it turns out, African culture and Arab culture are remarkably similar. Using cultural dimensions (one of the principle areas in my PhD dissertation), there is very little differentiation between African culture and Arab culture.

Sub-Saharan Africa is predominately Christian, and its scholars have produced excellent Bible commentaries and study Bibles with a sub-Sahara African lens. The Arab world is predominately Muslim and has produced little in terms of Christian literature, which makes it hard to directly know how the Arab world would likely view a passage. Studying the Christian literature of sub-Saharan Africa provides researchers with an incredible opportunity to view the Bible through the Arab cultural lens vis-à-vis the sub-Sahara African lens. Granted this is not a perfect lens, but it is probably the best we have at the moment.

Like my fellow African Christian scholars, I unintentionally provided a window on the Arab culture and how they would likely interpret the Bible if they were Christian. While the cultural closeness of the Arab world and sub-Saharan Africa were clear in my research, the implication of how this can illuminate the distinctly possible view of Arabs on the Bible escaped me (and once again reminded me that I am not as smart as I think I am).

During a very providencial conversation over tea with James Bryanson about the cultural similarities between the Arab world and sub-Saharan Africa, it became clear to James that my research had potential value to better understanding the Arab world. This conversation was the catalyst for me to start repackaging my PhD research into a more accessable format. Please pray for this repackaging. Also if you have any comments and/or suggestions with this endeavor let me know.

Also please pray for personal support and that God would grant success in finding people who will pray for, take mission trips to and give to Africa Theological Seminary.

My official title is Vice President Development. My job description says that I am to: “Raise awareness of the work at and encourage prayer for Africa Theological Seminary (ATS). Engage with and encourage people to financially support ATS.” While I have received coaching and guidance, this is new ground for me and I find myself often asking “what am I doing?” This feeling is compounded as our support is low. I ask myself, if I cannot raise enough support for myself, how am I to do this for ATS. Please pray that God’s grace would abound.

Micah Joy took a week off from her summer job at the Oklahoma State University library and spent some time with us, along with her dog Zane and guinea pig Fred. It was great to have all the Cox kids in one city at one time.

Back in February, I mentioned that one of my writing projects was turning a reflection on Isaiah 61 into an article. By God’s grace, this article has moved forward toward publication. A journal asked for revisions and given that the revisions are acceptable, they plan to publish the article. Praise God that this article is moving forward. Pray that it would continue to find favor and eventually be something that would bless the body of Christ.

One of my tasks is to raise awareness for Africa Theological Seminary (ATS) which hopefully results in more people praying for, taking mission trips to, and financially supporting ATS. ATS now has an updated page, icmusa.org/ats, on International Christian Ministries’ (ICM) web page (as ATS is a ministry of ICM). Have a look the new page and let me know what you think. Please pray that the Lord would grant success in raising awareness for ATS.

On Sunday I preached at Calvary Chapel Garland. A video of the service can be found on our Facebook page: facebook.com/thecoxfamily.org/.

Recently the South African Theological Seminary posted the 2019 graduation video. The link that jumps to where I am hooded and receive my diploma is: youtu.be/CyLxMVsX1sM?t=3984. If you want to watch the whole graduation use this link: youtu.be/CyLxMVsX1sM.

I hope and pray that your celebration of our Lord’s resurrection is blessed and glorious.

Below is a video, an update and a few praises and prayer requests.

Amos Ngeywo and I co-teach some classes together. Here is a short video introducing Amos and discussing our collaboration.

A link to the video can also be found at www.cox-net.com/2019-04_Amos.html

On Thursday Amos and I finished co-teaching Old Testament Introduction and today I finished grading the final exams. A few days after Easter I will head back to the USA. Praise God for the partnership that Amos and I have. Pray that God would speed my journey home.

The day Amos and I made this video, Amos was in a motorcycle accident on his way home. A drunk man, who was standing alongside the road as Amos approached, unexpectedly walked onto the road. Amos hit the man, lost control of his bike and took a hard fall to the pavement. The man who was drunk, ran away from the scene while bystanders aided Amos. By God’s grace (including a visit to hospital to be checked out) Amos was not seriously injured, although he is quite sore. One of the bystanders knew the man who was drunk, tracked him down and took him to the hospital. Praise God that Amos was not seriously injured. Pray that he recovers quickly from the bumps and bruises.

Last week my computer stopped booting. Praise be to God that all the information on my hard drive seems to be intact and that everything for my PhD was complete before this. Given that my current laptop is seven-years-old, I think I will replace it once I am back in the USA. Pray that I can be fully back up and running soon.