I am discouraged with social distancing and quarantines. I have spent a good amount of time pondering if my discouragement is appropriate. In the grand scheme of things, I am very blessed. Many people have been able to keep supporting us through COVID-19. Donna has been transfered to the College of Engineering at the University of North Texas and is working in their recruiting office; so she still has a job. All but one of my kids has been able to keep working through COVID-19. We are all healthy. I have made some significant headway on a research project (more about this coming soon). There is much for which to be thankful.

Had everything gone to plan, I would have returned home from teaching at Africa Theological Seminary in Kenya yesterday. I love teaching along with enjoying researching and writing. Although because of the way things worked out in 2017,¹ I only spend four months a year in Kenya teaching and eight months researching, writing and doing development work. When I miss two months of the thing I love and only get to do it four months out of the year,² in addition to having no idea when I will get back to Kenya, it is discouraging.

Given I remain thankful for my blessings, I think it is OK to be discouraged about not being able to do what God has gifted me to do and what I love to do. So here’s to everyone discouraged with social distancing: May we remember our blessings and may the time of unrestricted reunions come quickly.

Notes:

¹In 2017 after waiting for 18 months, my Kenya work permit was not renewed and I moved back to the USA. For those who do not know this story the following blogs will help fill in the missing pieces:
Work Permit Update: https://www.cox-net.com/prayer_blog/?p=682
Updated: https://www.cox-net.com/prayer_blog/?p=686
Moving to the USA: https://www.cox-net.com/prayer_blog/?p=691
Letter from President of ICM about the Cox Family: https://www.cox-net.com/prayer_blog/?p=700

² This is roughly speaking. I do teach a Sunday School class and have other opportunities here and there.

On the news the other night, in relation to some churches in the United States meeting together in violation of a government quarantine, the reporter said that science must be put above faith. This highlights the confusion many have between science and faith.

Science is not a savior. Science, according to the scientific method is a process of reasoning, observing and experimenting.¹ This process is not meant to take the place of faith or to be put above faith. It is meant to be a method for either proving or refuting a hypotheses. Science does not create cures, treatments or vaccines; people do, using the process of science.²

On the other end of the spectrum, faith is not God. Faith is a belief, trust or confidence that one puts in something, someone or God. From a Christian perspective, faith is a human reaction to what God has done and is doing. We do not serve faith for the sake of faith.³ Because of and through our faith we worship and serve the persons of the triune God.

I quarantine not because of science (or governmental mandates). I quarantine out of love for my neighbor, which is a result of my faith in God, expressed in not spreading COVID-19 especially for the sake of the sick, weak or elderly. The scientific method (used by those in the field of infectious disease) has helped me to understand how COVID-19 is transmitted so that I can make intelligent decisions in executing how I love. Faith and science in harmony.⁴

Notes:

¹ This process is not always as exacting as scientists make it out to be. Reference my blog on The Unpredictability of Predictions to see how inaccurate science can be.

² There are those who place their faith in the process of science. Unfortunately, many of these people cannot distinguish where science ends and their faith begins.

³ Faith for the sake of faith happens when people lose the distinction between faith and God (the object of one’s faith).

⁴ There has never been a conflict between Christian faith and reasoning (be it scientific, philosophic, apologetic, logic or any other rational thought process). Augustine (354-430 AD) said: “I believe in order to understand.” Anselm, the archbishop of Canterbury (1092-1109) more succinctly expressed the relationship between faith and reason: “Faith seeking understanding.”

This is not a claim that Christianity has all the answers: it does not (nor does any other philosophical, religious, scientific or logical system). Rather it offers a system where faith and science/reason/logic are not in conflict, plus much more.

“The truth is we’re not very good at making those predictions, but sometimes poor predictions are better than no predictions at all.”

John Drake in relation to predicting pandemics.¹
Director of the University of Georgia Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases

In Part I of my reflections I cited the New York Times worst-case estimated for COVID-19 deaths in the USA. The estimate was between 200,000 and 1.7 million people.² There is an enormous difference between 200,000 and 1.7 million. This started me down the path of researching and reflecting on COVID-19 predictions.

The most reliable source for up-to-date COVID-19 predictions seems to be https://covid19.healthdata.org ran by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME – http://www.healthdata.org). They detailed their methods which are under peer review.³ Figure 1 is their projectons for the numbers of deaths per day that was accessed on April 7, 2020.

I have put a green box around the small print: “Shaded area indicates uncertainty.” At the peak the range of deaths per day varies between 1,200 and 8,000. Again this is a vast difference in the possible prediction.

These large variances do not even take into account game changing events. If a treatment is found that is 50% effective (or more) then all these predictions change for the better. God forbid, but if an additional air borne pandemic starts then the deaths per day could skyrocket. Not to mention a miraculous God intervention of some type.

I do not want to advocate that we ignore the predictions, that would be foolish. At the same time we must remember that the scientist making the predictions also have a high degree of uncertainty. All of this to say: The predictions are unpredictable.

Notes

¹ Dhapte, Prajakta. “Predicting Pandemics: It’s Not Easy, but Researchers Are Trying.” Georgia Health News, 25 Jan 2019. accessed 7 Apr 2020, https://www.georgiahealthnews.com/2019/01/predicting-pandemics-easy-researchers/.

² Fink, Sheri. “Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths.” New York Times, 13 March 2020. accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html.

³ Murray, Christopher J. L. “Forecasting Covid-19 Impact on Hospital Bed-Days, Icu-Days, Ventilator-Days and Deaths by Us State in the Next 4 Months.” medRxiv (2020). accessed 7 Apr 2020, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752.

According to the New York Times worst-case estimates for USA COVID-19 deaths are between 200,000 and 1.7 million people.[1] Needless to say, this is a disturbing number of people who could potentially die.

All deaths, no matter the cause, are tragic. The thought of so many Americans dying from COVID-19 is horrendous. However, these numbers need to be put into perspective. In 2018, 380,000 people died from Malaria in Africa.[2] What is more stagering is that 1.5 million people died from Malaria in Africa in 2004; over 1 million of these where children under the age of five.[3]

In Africa when 1.5 million people died from Malaria in 2004 life went on as normal. Dying from Malaria was, and is still, a tragic part of everyday life in Africa. Year after year hundreds of thousands of people die from Malaria in Africa.

Now that the USA is facing the loss of hundreds of thousands, Americans are keenly aware of how a disease can wreck havoc with the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness. Welcome to the world of disease in developing nations.

Maybe God will use COVID-19 to make America a little more sensitive to the diseases the rest of the world faces.[4]

Footnotes

[1] Fink, Sheri. “Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths.” New York Times, 13 March 2020. accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html.

[2] World Health Organization. World Malaria Report 2019. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2019. accessed 2 Apr 2020. https://www.who.int/malaria/publications/world-malaria-report-2019/en/. 9.

[3] Murray, Christopher J L, Lisa C Rosenfeld, Stephen S Lim, Kathryn G Andrews, Kyle J Foreman, Diana Haring, Nancy Fullman, et al. “Global Malaria Mortality between 1980 and 2010: A Systematic Analysis.” The Lancet, no. 379 (2012): 413-431. Published electronically 4 Feb 2012. accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60034-8. 415, 421.

[4] The USA (as a whole) has been indifferent to the loss of millions of lives in Africa to Malaria, with two notable exceptions. However, most Americans are unaware of these two. One, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation gave 750 million to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria in 2012. (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, “Foundation Commits $750 Million to Global Fund,” news release, 2012, accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2012/01/Foundation-Commits-$750-Million-to-Global-Fund.) Two, the President’s Malaria Initiative which was started in 2005 and in 2018 gave 723 million dollars to help fight Malaria. (President’s Malaria Initiative. “About.” President’s Malaria Initiative, accessed 2 Apr 2020, https://www.pmi.gov/about. see Funding Tab.) While the above mentioned amounts are significant, they are a drop in the bucket compared to the 2 trillion dollar stimulus package for COVID-19.

I am not a prophet nor the son of a prophet, so I rarely make determinations on the things for which God brings judgement. The fault of Job’s three friends (which incurred the wrath of God) was not that they spoke theological falsehood, but rather that their theology was wrongly applied to Job’s character. Hence I now move forward with caution less I tumble into the same pit as Job’s friends. Failure to care for and help the poor, weak and sick has brought about God’s judgement in the Biblical text. Perhaps one should ask if it is possible that God is using COVID-19 as part of His judgement on America’s indifference to Malaria in Africa and other diseases in the developing world?

By God’s grace, my article, “The Realization of Isaiah 61 in Africa,” has been published. Here is the link to the article:

https://www.sats.edu.za/cox-realization-of-isaiah-61-in-africa/

I have tried to make the article accessable to layman. Hence, more “technical” points are in parathesises or footnotes. In addition, Greek and Hebrew words, in the body of the article, have English definitions in parathesises. In other words, you do not need seminary training to read the article.

For those interested in seeing the entire issue of “Conspectus” Volume 28 in which my article is published visit:

https://www.sats.edu.za/conspectus/

This article has been in the works since 2010. Over the years, it has taken various forms along with growing and developing. Praise be to God it is now in “Conspectus.”

Before I left for Kenya, one of my friends asked for some photos of Kenya. Thought you might enjoy them also. Below are a few photos. Enjoy!

Today I start my biannual migration to Kenya to teach classes at Africa Theological Seminary for six weeks. I will be teaching Major Prophets, Old Testament Biblical Theology and New Testament Biblical Theology. Pray that true spiritual growth, and not just the passing of knowledge, will take place.

Some of you have been praying for the publication of an article I wrote on Isaiah 61. By God’s grace, my article continues to find favor with an academic journal. Last week they sent me a typeset proof to review (one of the last steps, if not the last step, before publication). Praise be to God that progress continues. In addition to finding a number of mistakes that I made, some issues crept in during the typesetting process, especially with some of the phrases in Hebrew. Pray for the final proofing process.

Lastly, I love going to Kenya to teach. I do not like being away from my family for these extended periods. Pray for God’s grace to abound over the miles.

Paul at Dallas/Fort Worth airport starting his migration

This past weekend Steve Taylor (a colleague at ATS) and I represented Africa Theological Seminary (ATS) by riding in the annual Jon “Just Get ER Done” Memorial Motorcycle Ride in Minnesota. All the funds raised in this ride go to purchasing motorcycles for pastors in Africa. Over the years, this ride has purchased and given away 244 motorcycles. ATS and “Just Get ER Done” ride have had a long partnership with many of these 244 motorcycles going to ATS alumni. You can read more about the ride at jonjust.com/memorial-ride.html. (And no, I did not ride a Harley. Cindy and David borrowed a Kawasaki 650 for me to ride.)

The ride was started by David and Cindy Just after the tragic death of their son Jon in a motorcycle accident. Jon had a profound love for Jesus that was demonstrated in his life and was passionate about motorcycles. So a memorial ride to raise funds to help pastors in Africa is the perfect way to remember Jon. More about Jon’s life is available at: jonjust.com/jons-story.html

Praise God with me for David and Cindy who have allowed God to take the tragic and work it together for good. Praise God for a successful ride with the largest number of motorcycles that they have ever had: 88. Pray that God would bless their obedience and efforts to help African pastors.

Please continue to pray for the following items:

• Repackaging my dissertation (prayer_blog/_783)
• My role as Vice President Development and low support (prayer_blog/_779)

African Christian scholars have, quite unknowingly, provided a window on how the Arab culture would most likely view the Bible, if they were Christian. As it turns out, African culture and Arab culture are remarkably similar. Using cultural dimensions (one of the principle areas in my PhD dissertation), there is very little differentiation between African culture and Arab culture.

Sub-Saharan Africa is predominately Christian, and its scholars have produced excellent Bible commentaries and study Bibles with a sub-Sahara African lens. The Arab world is predominately Muslim and has produced little in terms of Christian literature, which makes it hard to directly know how the Arab world would likely view a passage. Studying the Christian literature of sub-Saharan Africa provides researchers with an incredible opportunity to view the Bible through the Arab cultural lens vis-à-vis the sub-Sahara African lens. Granted this is not a perfect lens, but it is probably the best we have at the moment.

Like my fellow African Christian scholars, I unintentionally provided a window on the Arab culture and how they would likely interpret the Bible if they were Christian. While the cultural closeness of the Arab world and sub-Saharan Africa were clear in my research, the implication of how this can illuminate the distinctly possible view of Arabs on the Bible escaped me (and once again reminded me that I am not as smart as I think I am).

During a very providencial conversation over tea with James Bryanson about the cultural similarities between the Arab world and sub-Saharan Africa, it became clear to James that my research had potential value to better understanding the Arab world. This conversation was the catalyst for me to start repackaging my PhD research into a more accessable format. Please pray for this repackaging. Also if you have any comments and/or suggestions with this endeavor let me know.

Also please pray for personal support and that God would grant success in finding people who will pray for, take mission trips to and give to Africa Theological Seminary.

My official title is Vice President Development. My job description says that I am to: “Raise awareness of the work at and encourage prayer for Africa Theological Seminary (ATS). Engage with and encourage people to financially support ATS.” While I have received coaching and guidance, this is new ground for me and I find myself often asking “what am I doing?” This feeling is compounded as our support is low. I ask myself, if I cannot raise enough support for myself, how am I to do this for ATS. Please pray that God’s grace would abound.

Micah Joy took a week off from her summer job at the Oklahoma State University library and spent some time with us, along with her dog Zane and guinea pig Fred. It was great to have all the Cox kids in one city at one time.

Back in February, I mentioned that one of my writing projects was turning a reflection on Isaiah 61 into an article. By God’s grace, this article has moved forward toward publication. A journal asked for revisions and given that the revisions are acceptable, they plan to publish the article. Praise God that this article is moving forward. Pray that it would continue to find favor and eventually be something that would bless the body of Christ.